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  #41  
Old 02-03-2012, 02:18 PM
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WG, I think it depends of what the opening value of FB's stock will be. If it's within a palatable ballpark range and people have money to burn, I think it will be a good gamble. I look at the stock market like entering a casino: Bring an amount of money that's expected to be lost.
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  #42  
Old 02-03-2012, 02:34 PM
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... Bring an amount of money that's expected to be lost.
We differ in that belief, I play by a set of rules (stop loss orders, pre-selling, only certain P/E ratio, must pay good dividends and some additional rules that I hold to). This allows losing minimal dollars and I only stay in long enough to exceed 10% return. I seldom stray from my own set of rules of engagement which have worked out well for me. There has to be a certain threshold of pain that one can live with before throwing in the towel, so it’s best to follow your game plan. Also greed kills investors and never fall in love with any one holding. That said, I do have long term holdings in fortune 50 companies in tax free retirement account that have well exceeded my 10% expectation.
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  #43  
Old 02-07-2012, 10:28 AM
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Enzo you must be busting ass, i see some good increases over the last week
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  #44  
Old 02-15-2012, 04:53 PM
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Who will be the major buyers of Kodak's patents? Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, Sony, Canon, Fuji, Google? The bidding should be interesting.
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  #45  
Old 02-15-2012, 06:35 PM
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Who will be the major buyers of Kodak's patents? Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, Sony, Canon, Fuji, Google? The bidding should be interesting.
Really? http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/15/a...suit-bankrupt/
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  #46  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:54 AM
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I don't own this one and never have but started keeping an eye on them after my very first sansa player (e260). At that time the stock was well under $20 (IIRC around $12.00) and Enzo and I spoke about them a few times. I certainly wish I'd bought some as in just a few years they topped out around $53.00 a few weeks ago. Then again I'm glad I only look as last night in after hours a sell off began taking them down appx 15%, currenly down -$5.24 and trading around $35.22

I've always wished them well as there's a few of their products that I like/own and hope they continue to make ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/5128...amatic-outlook
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  #47  
Old 04-20-2012, 11:18 AM
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Sandisk's stock will probably drop further. The problem is that the SDXC was not properly rolled out when it should have been a few years ago. Now the 32GB SDHC and micro SDHC cards are so cheap, and very few are buying the SDXC cards. Sandisk should have made a major push to get the SDXC cards affordable at least a year ago. They should have made mp3 players that were micro SDXC compatible more than a year ago. Imo until SDXC(and micro SDXC) catches on in a big way and with low prices(under $50 for 64GB and under $100 for 128GB) and cards at least 256GB are available, Sandisk will be under great pressure. While digital camera resolutions are up to 16 megapizels for cheap consumer digital cameras, most people don't feel the need for larger than a 32GB card(or even a smaller one) for their digital camera.

Solid state hard drives are also still much too expensive. When will we see them cheap enough so decent sized ones will be in notebooks under $500?
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  #48  
Old 04-20-2012, 02:41 PM
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JK98 the bleeding has let up some, they're now only down -$4.05

Yes, I think you're right and it will bleed more but who knows how much. Also most stocks typically drop approaching summer except gasoline/oil and that should have some effect as well. That said it's hard to think it'll go below it's 52 week low of $32.24 but it's dam close.

Regarding sales of SDXC VS SDHC I haven't seen any data on but it's an understandable point you make. Since I don't own this stock I don't bother looking too deep at the numbers but if you have some, it might be interesting to see.
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  #49  
Old 04-20-2012, 03:32 PM
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Today is option expiration, which seems to be limiting the drop in SNDK today. Imo next week it will probably drop more. If the stock price drops enough(perhaps to $20 or less?) perhaps Sandisk might do a large share repurchase. Earnings estimates for 2012 and 2013 will imo continue to be slashed. People quickly forget that Sandisk had large losses just a few years ago, and that it might be possible for Sandisk to have losses in 2013 or 2014 if they can't get SDXC to be mainstream or to be able to produce solid state drives much cheaper.

If you are looking at book value, then keep in mind that I seem to recall Sandisk was trading at something like 1/3 of book value when they had large losses a few years ago and the stock fell to $5.
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  #50  
Old 04-20-2012, 05:44 PM
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Trading with a P/E of 10.03 and a market cap of 8.7 billion it's extremely doubtful you'll ever see $5.00.

Edit: remember that an analysts at Deutsche Bank down graded them, so expect to shave 10 or more off the price. It couldn't get near $5/share without some other big company buying them out first.
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  #51  
Old 04-20-2012, 07:20 PM
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I didn't say Sandisk will drop back to $5 again, although I do think $18-21 might be possible, especially if they start losing money. A few years ago Sandisk went from making plenty to losing plenty for a while. If Sandisk earns around $3 a share in '12 and earnings estimates for '13 drop to under $2 a share, then the stock might drop to under $20. Sandisk should trade at a very low p/e ratio since its business is cyclical, and they have had inconsistant earnings and some losing quarters over the past 5 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=sndk&ql=1

Look at what happened to FSLR. They earned $6.01 a share in 2011. They are expected to earn $4.04 a share in 2012, and $3.96 a share in 2013.
The stock is now $20.65, only around three and a half times what they earned last year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=fslr&ql=1
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  #52  
Old 05-10-2012, 04:00 PM
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The new earnings consensus for Sandisk for 2012 is $2.02 a share. That puts the stock at almost 18x 2012 earnings. I have a feeling though that earnings estimates will continue to be slashed, and that SNDK will earn under $2 a share in '02, and perhaps even under $1 a share. The real question is what will happen in '03 and will Sandisk have some losing quarters. Imo the rollout of SDXC and micro SDXC has been much too slow and prices on those cards are still much too high.

The earnings estimates for Q2 are between 6 cents a share and 41 cents, so there is even a significant enough chance that Sandisk might have a small loss in Q2. What will happen in q3 and beyond? I don't expect the stock to hit its 2009 lows of around $5, however imo a low between $15 and $20 seems like it might happen, especially if earnings forcasts keep being lowered.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=SNDK+Analyst+Estimates

Last edited by JK98; 05-10-2012 at 04:05 PM.
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  #53  
Old 05-14-2012, 08:47 PM
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Whats the point of the stock market? Everything about it is psychological.
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  #54  
Old 05-14-2012, 10:20 PM
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Whats the point of the stock market?
The purpose of a stock exchange is to facilitate the exchange of securities ... you can learn more here
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  #55  
Old 05-15-2012, 03:25 AM
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Whats the point of the stock market? Everything about it is psychological.
The need for a stock market stems from the same base need as any other market. Someone has too much of one thing and wants more of another. Add someone else with the same needs and the conditions for trade are met. The stock market is a place for investors to buy and sell ownership stakes in companies (aka share).

Companies need money (equity) to run their business, the public at large has extra money on hand and needs investment opportunities. Thus the concept of equity investors was borne. It is prohibitively expensive for investors to try to deal directly with other investors when they need to rearrange ownership. Intermediaries filled the gap and now the network of intermediaries is commonly held as the stock market.

Many things in life are psychological. What is the value of an ounce of gold? Just how much is the money in your bank account worth? Just like the stock market both things are worth what others say they are worth.

Debt markets are separate and structured in a different manner. Hybrid and derivative securities are different still.
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  #56  
Old 05-15-2012, 10:40 AM
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While I have a large dislike of facebook, this IPO will be interesting to see. At 99 times its annual earnings, this thing is a rip off

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tors-poll.html
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  #57  
Old 05-15-2012, 10:53 AM
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It would indeed be interesting to see the figures for the underlying valuation. For the valuation to add up they must be using extremely high future growth estimates and an exceedingly low cost of capital. More likely though there is no sane underlying valuation. People will just get fleeced.
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  #58  
Old 05-15-2012, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
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... More likely though there is no sane underlying valuation. People will just get fleeced.
I totally a agree, greedy people and companies ...
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  #59  
Old 05-15-2012, 03:19 PM
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Walkgood smack some sense into the seniors in your area.

http://money.cnn.com//2012/05/14/mar...-facebook-ipo/
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  #60  
Old 05-29-2012, 02:44 PM
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IIRC today is one of the first days that market makers started shorting FB, lol. Now down to $29.08, down -$2.80. Still over valued IMHO

Edit: now 6/6/12 $25.65 and falling, I'm guessing with the insane over valuations this should go below $20. Unless the popularity of it drives or keeps it higher ...
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