Stock Market

[WalkGood]

We never had a thread like this here before and I was wondering if it would fly or die a quick death so without further delay …

Wondering if anyone follows the market, what you follow and why? Personally I’ve been in and out of it for years, mainly in a tax free retirement account like an IRA but also in company sponsored 401s to save for retirement as I doubt that government social security will amount to much.

Some of the ones I follow but not necessarily own and in no specific order are: CRWG, SNDK, INTC, MSFT, TEVA, IBM, PG, NEE, KO, CMCSA, AMAT, XLE, XOM, CVX, C, BAC, ESRX, CRM, DIS, GE, AXP, AMZN, YHOO, CAT, FCX, GOOG and a few others.


* Edit: This is only a discussion and in no way are any stocks recommended here, stocks can be risky! *

[CrowdAds]

[Marvin the Martian]

No AAPL?
I've never been involved with the market, myself.

[WalkGood]

Originally Posted by Marvin the Martian

No AAPL?
I've never been involved with the market, myself.

Never owned it, but I do watch it. Just like their gear the stock has loads of fanboys, it's done very well over time, now it's expensive. Certainly will be interesting to see what the outcome of the Justice Department's antitrust investigation into them. As you probably know it hit MSFT a few years back, personally I've always wondered why they haven't gone after jobs as it appears they are a culprit of antitrust IMO.

Edit: BTW did you notice the first one I listed, wonder why

[Marvin the Martian]

Originally Posted by WalkGood

Never owned it, but I do watch it. Just like their gear the stock has loads of fanboys, it's done very well over time, now it's expensive. Certainly will be interesting to see what the outcome of the Justice Department's antitrust investigation into them. As you probably know it hit MSFT a few years back, personally I've always wondered why they haven't gone after jobs as it appears they are a culprit of antitrust IMO.

Edit: BTW did you notice the first one I listed, wonder why

I did, actually. As far as antitrust inquiries, it appears another one is on the horizon.....

Exactly two decades after the FTC launched an inquiry into Microsoft's competitive practices, opening up a slew of regulatory actions, the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reports the FTC is now preparing to serve Google with subpoenas and will probe whether the company has abused its dominance in the search market to unfairly promote its own services at the expense of rival offerings.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_883389.html

[WalkGood]

I gues the FTC has their sites set on a few others, GOOG among some ... funny how when there's money to be made they sharpen their talons

[musichound]

There has been a lot of talk that Facebook might be going public. If it does, it could develop to be another Google trend.

[JK98]

The stock market is particularly risky now. Of the stocks you listed, TEVA seems like the best value and the least risky. Around 10x earnings for a large cap company that grew earnings 19% a year over the past 5 years is a great bargain. I guess some think the earnings growth might drop to around 10%, however while I think it might decline somewhat, I don't see it dropping so much. They have made so many acquisitions so quickly, and need time to digest them all, and achieve all the synergies they can, then earnings growth may start increasing again. It is interesting they they are now trying to diversify from just generics, and I think they now have something like 20% of their sales as proprietary drugs.

BAC looks okay, however imo C looks better, and STD looks even better than C. STD is based in Spain, yet is huge and has major operations in South America, the US(Sovereign Bank), and Europe. STD gets 40% of its income from South America, and their SA income is is growing 26% a year. STD pays a huge dividend.

Tech stocks look particularly risky now. YHOO, AMZN, GOOG, IBM, SNDK, INTC, etc. look very vulnerable to any future economic slowdown.

XOM scares me. Imo oil will probably drop quite a bit in price the next few months as world economies slow down. Regulators may increase margin requirements on oil futures some more to reign in speculation. The high oil price is dragging down economies worldwide.

CAT and BA imo look very vulnerable to the interest rate increases I think will be arriving soon enough.

[WalkGood]

Great response JK98 and I agree with your assessments, btw I only own 3 of the one’s I listed and TEVA is one of them but I don’t always hold it for the long. The rest I like to follow for various reasons and any explanation here would be lengthier than I would will to undertake. I’d rather go in and out with many while a bellwether would be better for the long hold. That said, look at a company like MSFT, if you had bought it 10 years ago, you would be down 29%, some bellwether I don’t believe it’s a good time to be invested rather to be in a cash position ready to invest if you see bargains. Although as you know it’s a catch 22 as interest does suck at this time, land values are in the gutter (here) and one can be limited by the rules of what you can and can’t do within IRAs.

[musichound]

I agree with WG, JK98 that your reply was excellent.

[JK98]

TEVA seems like it is out of favor, so I don't expect much appreciation in the next month or two, but over the next 2+ years it should do well. STD has been much more volatile lately, so it is a better candidate as a trading stock. Imo STD looks like a bargain now. People think of it as a Spanish company since its headquarters is in Spain, but I think of it as being more of a South American company, as that is where its exciting growth is.

[WalkGood]

Skullcandy will start trading later today as the title says under the symbol SKUL. If you thought your local stores already had too much skullcandy IEMs & headphones, just wait till they get all this additional funding :/ Can't remember where I read it, but it seems they're going to attack the higher end market with more products. I did get a chance to test out the Aviator's and really wasn't impressed and the sound sig is not my cup of tea either.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Lis...0/6647734.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Headph....html?x=0&.v=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=skul

[JK98]

I will laugh hysterically if Skullcandy buys Grado, Koss or some other small headphone maker. Now that Skullcandy is public, they can make acquisitions in all stock transactions, and make acquisitions with new shares.

Anyone here thinking about buying shares in Cowon? It is not that easy for most to buy though, as its shares trade only in South Korea, so there will probably be high broker commisions. Cowon stock is down 43% over the past year. It say here it is only at a P/E of around 4! At 1050 Won to the US$, their market cap is only around $28.8 million.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=056000:KS

http://eng.cowon.net/ir/ir_finance.php

[WalkGood]

What I find funny is that skullcandy stock is floundering since its IPO compared to other companies that have never shown a profit. They have consistently shown a good profit with substantial growth and have more than doubled probability over the last 3 years. Where other IPOs like Zillow, linkedin, pandora, etc. who have never turned a profit but on the other hand have substantially grown stock value since they started trading, go figure. That said, there’s no way I’d invest into any of them for various reasons but they are interesting to follow. As long as they don’t buy Sennheiser I’m fine with it, fact is that I would find it funny if they bought out grado

[JxK]

All I can say is thank you gold. And thank you to the kind individual who told me it should be part of everyone's portfolio all those years ago.

[WalkGood]

Originally Posted by JxK

All I can say is thank you gold. And thank you to the kind individual who told me it should be part of everyone's portfolio all those years ago.

I heard the same from my economics instructor in college, was going around $230.00 an ounce back then, so I got an ounce, lol. I did get silver too but in coins and way way cheaper at the time. Although silver has appreciated a lot, nothing like the aforementioned That said, I'd expect this is another bubble waiting to pop someday and can't last forever but who knows ...

[sideways]

I agree that Gold is in some kind of bubble. It's being pushed hard as a safeguard against inflation, honest currency, doomsday hedge etc etc. Looking at the people "investing" in precious metals I can't help but think it's the greater fool theory at work. IMO the time to get into gold has come and gone. As soon as they run out of greater fools prices will tumble. I can't quantify the amount of greater fools so it's impossible to predict when the peak will be. Gold does not have industrial value in the same way that silver does. It doesn't produce anything of value and costs money to safeguard. How is that a sane investment? "House prices will go up because they have always gone up."

For precious metals as a doomsday/hyperinflation hedge I'd say a deep larder/ good garden is a much better insurance policy. A chunk of metal that can't be easily divided is a sure way to overpay for your eggs.

For reference you should index the price increase of gold and silver to inflation over time. Otherwise it's like comparing apples to oranges. ... I'm rambling. Excuse me.

[JK98]

Cowon shares are up 15% today. I wonder if some ABIers were buying the shares. I might have bought some Cowon shares if they traded in the US. They trade only in South Korea though. At 4x earnings, they were a bargain. I guess many thought that if Apple is doing well, Cowon can't survive?

[WalkGood]

Originally Posted by JK98

... I wonder if some ABIers were buying the shares. ...

Doubtful and risky since their market is not under the regulatory oversight of the SEC ...

[JxK]

Originally Posted by sideways

I agree that Gold is in some kind of bubble. It's being pushed hard as a safeguard against inflation, honest currency, doomsday hedge etc etc. Looking at the people "investing" in precious metals I can't help but think it's the greater fool theory at work. IMO the time to get into gold has come and gone. As soon as they run out of greater fools prices will tumble. I can't quantify the amount of greater fools so it's impossible to predict when the peak will be. Gold does not have industrial value in the same way that silver does. It doesn't produce anything of value and costs money to safeguard. How is that a sane investment? "House prices will go up because they have always gone up."

For precious metals as a doomsday/hyperinflation hedge I'd say a deep larder/ good garden is a much better insurance policy. A chunk of metal that can't be easily divided is a sure way to overpay for your eggs.

For reference you should index the price increase of gold and silver to inflation over time. Otherwise it's like comparing apples to oranges. ... I'm rambling. Excuse me.

The value of gold (as well as silver) is as protection against inflation and the effective debasement of the US dollar.

From what I remember, since 1900 the dollar has lost something like 95-98% of its purchasing power - most of it since the creation of the federal reserve and more after the US went off the gold standard.

During that same time period the purchasing power of gold has increased roughly 150%. So in a mere century, the relative purchasing power of gold has catapulted to become a staggering 75 times greater than the dollar.

Basically, you were correct when you stated that precious metals don't gain value. That's the point. They maintain their value despite inflation - and end up gaining relative worth. So for us contrarians who find the government's promises behind paper money hollow, gold is a tangible asset to hold. That and real estate should you be able to afford it. Tangible assets all.

[sideways]

The fallacy there being to assume that someone would hold cash for 100 years. Holding cash over your immediate needs is generally a very bad idea. Gold may have outperformed cash but has it outperformed other asset classes like stocks, bonds and real estate? I can see the value of gold as a liquid asset (maybe not at current prices) but if we are talking 100 years other stuff should be looked at. The longer your investment horizon the more your wealth should be in lucrative (and implicitly volatile) stocks. At least that's what mathematical analysis of past data suggests.

Anyways to each his own.