US MP3 Player Sales Will Reach $4.5 Billion in 2006
From 2004 to 2005 MP3 player sales jumped 200% to $3 billion. The number crunching analysts have forecasted a jump to $4.5 billion in 2006, in the United States alone. Interestingly, 30% of these players will have video playback.
Will Apple be able to hold on to its 80% market share in the next few years? No way. The coolness factor will start to fade as the market becomes more and more competitive for a chunk of that $4.5 billion. My prediction is that at the end of 2006 the iPod’s market share will have slipped below 60%, possibly 50%.
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Comments
Chico on January 5, 2006 12:20 PM
Why does everyone assume that it's 'coolness' that sells the iPod...and not the fact that it and it's software are simply 'good enough' for most folks?
Jebus on January 5, 2006 2:09 PM
Good enough? Then i guess everyone should be driving Kia automobiles because they are "good enough for most folks".
Louis on January 5, 2006 11:20 PM
I wouldn't call Kia "Good enough" except if you're comparing to, say, a Dell Jukebox or Creative Zen (Because honestly they are "Good enough"). The iPod, in comparison, is designed to look like a luxury product, so the closer car might be, hrm, Lexus, which is really just an expensive Toyota.
I don't see Apple dropping to 60% or 50% in 2006 for two reasons:
I don't see someone else "stepping up to the plate". I still don't see why DAPs don't support AAC, when 80% of the current market does. That's like not support FAT, .doc, or .mp3! Of course Sony tried very hard to ignore MP3 too. Yes, maybe 95% of PCs support WMA, but due to the fact that iPods are 80% of the market, 80% of consumers have AAC compatible DAPs, and most of them who use iTunes also have AAC compatible media players, and some fraction of them have AAC libraries! Apple added WMA->AAC conversion in iTunes, I don't see why Creative, Sony, et al, don't support AAC. Who would you envision taking back 40% of the market from Apple?
I don't see Apple "dropping the ball". If Microsoft was able to hold on to desktop PCs for the past 10 years, I don't see why Apple can't continue to hold on to DAPs for the next six (since they've already had four years). Apple will continue to drop the price, increase the functionality, and refine the design, alongside everyone else, therefore ensuring that they retain their hefty lead.
Ken on January 20, 2006 11:17 AM
The AAC comment is a good one. Even if you don't know anything about AAC, anyone with iTunes and an iPod (a lotta lotta people) has a lot of AAC formatted music in their library(if they haven't changed the defaults).
If I were to purchase the Creative Zen Vision, I wouldn't be able to play any of this music and would have to either pull out my CD collection again OR re-compress the AAC's to MP3's.
The company that stops thinking,"How can I outdo the iPod?" and starts thinking,"How can I get people who own iPods to want my product?" will be the breakout company that will make Apple sit up and take notice.
Just went to Creative's site... They're SO glad Apple doesn't attend CES :)
anoymouse on January 21, 2006 5:34 AM
"My prediction is that at the end of 2006 the iPod’s market share will have slipped below 60%, possibly 50%"
Hahaha... Who the hell is running this site??
I do like your thorough reviews, but you're an idiot if you seriously think what you are saying there.